Joel Kotkin Says Urban Living is a Fad

i wonder how the increasing price of oil factors into joel's calculations. the far-flung suburbs like riverside and san bernardino are going to lose some of their sheen as gas prices continue to increase.

i do think bill witte is right that many of the announced residential towers won't be built. i don't think the pace of development downtown is going to be nearly as torrid as the pace of announcements, but i am increasingly convinced that it is not a trend that is about to reverse entirely.

and i don't get the feeling that the condo market in downtown is seeing the level of speculation that joel cites for san diego, but i could be wrong.

overall, it would have been nice to see some actual numbers about los angeles in joel's article, instead of thin comparisons to development elsewhere.

Kotkin must have thought this up while mowing the lawn. It goes in circles and doesn't get anywhere.

Obviously nobody wants to live in an urban area as evidenced by San Francisco, New York, Boston, Chicago, Tokyo, etc.

I had class with Joel Kotkin at Pepperdine. It astounds me that a JOURNALIST who just seems to write based on free association and not on legitimate research or qualifications.

He is an embarassment, and an example of how if a person BSes enough they will eventually gain a following.

When did Downtown ever start comparing themselves to the 'burbs?
Downtown bustles with activity and people. The 'burbs set their tivos to record Desperate Housewives.
I know where I want to be and it isn't Arcadia.

Our civic dialogue about the future of our region has been severly constrained by the media tendency to annoint and continually give space to experts who by any rational criteria should have long ago been held accountable for their biases and mis-information. I hold Kotkin as the worse offender in re urbanism. His comments in the recent CityView on light rail being "a failure" casts serious doubt on his value as a commentator.

As a self-taught transportation policy wonk (junior trade) I wince at a lot of what appears in the media. I have tried to educate reporters but it is a slow process (plus the Times has had too much rotation on the MTA beat the past few years).

To end on a positve note, a healthy alternative to Kotkin is William Fulton. His Reluctant Metropolis should be required reading for anyone trying to unravel L.A.

In any college writing class I ever took, this essay would have received a C, due to it's inability to define and support a thesis. The argument has neither a basis nor a purpose. It seems more like a "those elites vs. us regular folk" tirade, the sort of petty, insinuating rant that seems to work very well with the weak-minded in this country.

Actually, I think Mr. Kotkin offers some useful speculation about downtown L.A. based upon demographic trends and real estate data. I think his article is not trying to run down downtown. Rather, he is trying to deflate the hype about downtown living. I say this as a long-time resident who loves where I live. I think Kotkin is correct: living downtown will appeal to a pretty small demographic. I think that's too bad. But, most people are not interested.

Recently, I saw a real estate agent advertising in Pico- Union. The dreams of these working poor was not some condo in the hood. Rather, the suburbs were the promised land. The perception that suburbs are more family-friendly, safer and offer better quality schools is the primary draw. Until urban areas address these basics, their appeal will be limited. Vancouver is a city which has done an excellent job of creating successful urban residential neighborhoods. The cornerstone of their urban planning for these areas is "How can we make this area appealing for families?" From what I've seen, they have succeeded. And this success has not come at the cost of creating a dull city. As a parent, I only wish downtown L.A. had that kind of ambition.

I suspect the rapid rise in price per square foot downtown is due to demand for limited product. Until a few years ago, there weren't really a lot of places to live downtown. It will be very interesting to see what happens when all of the product in the pipeline finally hits the market. Will demand rise to sustain prices? Will there be a glut of product?

I do think there is a lot of speculation going on. There are buildings which I've considered buying and I think prices are utterly unrealistic and only sustained by speculation. Utterly unrealistic because the quality of the building is terrible. (Yes, I know there are plenty of great buildings downtown, too.) I'd actually welcome a serious decline in housing prices downtown, because I'd jump in right away and buy my piece of downtown.