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Homeless Heat Map

By Eric Richardson
Published: Wednesday, January 17, 2007, at 05:47PM

Back on December 5th launched the and I got to write about the process here. The project takes LAPD Central Division's bi-weekly homeless counts and turns the data into a map, visually telling the story of changes in Downtown's street population.

Today we've put online a new version of the maps, using a radically different methodology for showing the data. Instead of the dots of the old maps, this version takes the data and turns it into a "heat map" that shows the density of the population in different areas. More about the new style after the jump...

Interesting to note, though, is the way in which temperature affects the number of people on the street. It's cold outside, and has been for several days now. The count for January 15th (Monday) was down 271 people from January 2nd. It got cold and the people who could find somewhere to go did so.

I think the main thing this new style brings is a more instant understanding of what's going on. The dots made an interesting picture, and one that did work to tell the story, but in the end they generated a lot of questions. Real world data collection inevitably means compromises in your methodology, and in this case it led to confusing results like dots showing up on top of other dots.

Aside from just looking cool, the heat map was a tecnically interesting thing to create. The process involved taking irregular point data and generating an approximated surface from it. That surface data was then brought back into the GIS and the statistical models were tweaked this way and that until they generated something that felt true to the situation on the streets.

Update (9pm): A little on the technical side...

To generate the approximated surface I'm using , an open-source gridding application. Initially I was struggling because the data I get only has positive points -- there are no zero points to bring the elevation back to the plane in areas where no homeless were counted. I eventually figured out how to normalize the computation against a flat area I set up that covers Downtown.

Once I have the surface grid from surfit I use VTBuilder from the to georeference that data and clean out really low data (elevations less than 0.5 or so). VTBuilder outputs an Arc ASCII GRD file and I pull that back into ArcGIS.

The color ramp is applied against a set of baseline statistics that don't change count to count.

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Conversation

Guest 1

Simon Roy on January 17, 2007, at 07:15PM – #1

I hope the map will help understand the problem better and hopefully one day help fix it.


Guest 2

Joscha on January 18, 2007, at 05:10AM – #2

Interesting approach. What seems implausible to me is the idea of having a radius spreading proportionally to the density at a single point. I.e. there might be a street corner inhabited by a large group, and the map view spreads them several blocks. And into the river. Well, maybe this way the map is easier to read than if you'd confine the surface to the actually inhabited areas, even though it is inaccurate.


Guest 3

Tim Quinn on January 18, 2007, at 05:32AM – #3

They do live in the river, alot live in the river.


Guest 4

AJ on January 18, 2007, at 08:37AM – #4

Eric: You do a wonderful job bringing downtown news. It is a great resource for people like me who are new to LA.


Eric Richardson () on January 18, 2007, at 08:57AM – #5

Joscha: Actually in some ways this is more accurate, as obviously a large group of people simply can't occupy a single point. Four people may take up ten feet of sidewalk, but forty may spread along the entire block. The data we get tends to reflect both as points.

We've talked a lot in the office about how ideally you'd have the coloration spread only along the sidewalks, but in order for that to read you'd need some very large roads. Having the heat map carry through the middle of blocks is a compromise to allow easy viewing.


Guest 3

Tim Quinn on January 18, 2007, at 12:02PM – #6

Since people do occupy a spot and are not clouds, a small dot for each individual would be the most accurate. Maybe the scale of the map and the low resolution of web graphics does not allow for this. You could do this for a zoomed in look. Start with the cloud, zoom in to see points. The cloud makes me think of probabilities, like electrons. Given the people we are talking about, that is not so wrong. If you came back ten minutes later it might be different.


Eric Richardson () on January 18, 2007, at 12:08PM – #7

Tim: I'd love to map it like that if you'd be willing to do a real time count of where all those individuals are.

Your final product can only be as precise as your data gathering.


Guest 5

Ron on January 18, 2007, at 02:47PM – #8

e, Stop kissing Eric's butt. This is a map that is not telling us anything new. The map is just too vague.


Eric Richardson () on January 18, 2007, at 03:19PM – #9

Ron: I think you may be missing the point several times over. Most importantly: I am Eric. Hence the "By e;" on the post.


Guest 6

christopher on January 18, 2007, at 04:29PM – #10

wow, this is a much better version of the map. the presentation is beautiful, even tho the reality it represents is tragic. thanks for doing this eric.

i have a question - how accurate do you consider the data to be? there's a pretty amazing fluctuation in the population amount.


Guest 5

Ron on January 18, 2007, at 04:50PM – #11

K, my bad. so whats the point? please explain. I am just saying the map is not showing anything new that I didn't know. I t might be helpful for people that are new to the downtown area, but for me a resident for more than 25+ years is not.


Eric Richardson () on January 18, 2007, at 04:54PM – #12

christopher: Thanks. The count itself I think is very accurate. Population is affected by such things as weather and policing. Particularly with weather I think you see a situation where it gets cold and some of the people who are here just to use drugs decide it's not worth it and go home.

It's a sad fact, but there are people who are on Skid Row looking for all the world like homeless people, but have houses to go back to. This is just where they buy and use their drugs. When LAPD really cracks down and the number of dealers get smaller, or when it gets cold outside, those people leave Downtown.

In my opinion the most important thing that will come of the Safer Cities initiative and LAPD's increased enforcement Downtown is that the true homeless population will be made clearer as you separate the drugs and crimes from it.


Eric Richardson () on January 18, 2007, at 05:00PM – #13

Ron: The solution to the problems of homelessness are going to have to come from far more than just Downtown. A major part of our goal here is to educate those who aren't down here walking the streets and seeing what it's like. If the map is telling you what you already knew from walking around that means it's doing a good job of portraying the situation.

But also this sort of visualization is vital because it tells us what trends are occurring over time. Since enforcement of Safer Cities began there has been a definite spread of homeless to areas outside of Skid Row, particularly into the Toy District, the Fashion District and into South Park. Anecdotally we see this every day, but visualizing hard data allows us to say it for certain. That sort of knowledge is important for planning strategy.


Guest 7

christopher on January 18, 2007, at 06:58PM – #14

thanks for the elucidation eric. i was unaware how much of the population was the result of the drug business - going from a population of almost 1400 to less than 900 is significant.

it would be interesting to know which ones simply went home because they could, and which perhaps finally decided to take refuge in a shelter or decided to find a warmer place to sleep outside the area of this data collection.


Guest 8

kat on January 19, 2007, at 12:11PM – #15

does anyone know who to contact to volunteer for serving the homeless/helping them find jobs in (specifically)Downtown LA?? Thanks


Eric Richardson () on January 19, 2007, at 12:58PM – #16

kat: Try . They do exactly that sort of thing.


Guest 9

tuff guy on January 19, 2007, at 01:45PM – #17

You have to be careful with what you are doing. That software you are using is for estimating continuous distributions of things from point samples (e.g., weather temperature maps from point measurements of temp), while you are trying to plot a non-continuous thing. Sure, you can talk about an average density of people, but only at a scale much larger than a person... blocks at least. This may work on a much bigger scale, but it is very questionable on a scale where you could actually plot the individual people.

Also when plotting something which varies over many orders of magnitude, often the log of the "concentration" is contoured and plotted, since it doesn't tail off so much, like your plot does.

Are the homeless people inside the buildings in the middle of the blocks? Your map says so.

Eh, just ideas.


Eric Richardson () on January 19, 2007, at 02:12PM – #18

tuff guy: Essentially what I'm doing is taking data that has been artificially aggregated into points and smoothing it back out into distributed data. The data we get will show something like "40 people at 600 S. San Pedro", but those people are actually scattered throughout the block.

The fitted surface actually accomplishes that spread in the trail-off from the high point. It wouldn't do to try and read numbers and infer the data off of it, but it works very well for telling the story of the data.


Guest 10

Whitman Lam on January 19, 2007, at 03:59PM – #19

I think that a scattering of dots, each dot representing a homeless person should the real depth of the problem. Alot of homeless people do not live in a "community" setting. You will find alot of lone individuals sleeping under freeway bridges, alleys, and bushes all across the region. Skid Row is a concentration of homeless, but most homeless people are widely scattered in neighborhoods you wouldn't have thought of, like Santa Monica, the San Fernando Valley or Orange County. It is therefore a challenge to reach all those homeless if they don't live in a tent town.

In this database it is important to classify and define which individuals are really homeless. Who is really without shelter ?

Many people being counted are able to find a place to stay when necessary. A large portion of those we see are here, come for drugs or panhandling. In many instances professional panhandlers own vehicles or even homes.

We must sort out the people who stay on Skid Row by choice, and those who are economically or mentally imprisoned on the streets.


Guest 11

deven on January 20, 2007, at 06:45PM – #20

i love the map. Its like tracking wild animals lol


Guest 12

christopher on January 21, 2007, at 11:01AM – #21

im surprised that so many people are critical about the point accuracy of this model. it seems very apparent that this is a tool to visually represent the homeless population as it fluctuates over time in density and geography. it's very good for that - it's not supposed to be a location-specific map for each individual.

bickering over whether a glowing circle that encompases folks who are in buildings or all together on a corner versus spread down the street is pointless.

i agree it would be nice to know the real homeless population versus drug-users, etc; but as eric pointed out, that's an inherent flaw in the data acquisition, not the model itself.


Guest 13

Dan Bassill on February 06, 2007, at 07:45PM – #22

I think this is a great way to use GIS to help people understand the distribution of a social problem that persists in all big cities.

I have been using a GIS since 1994 to map the location of poverty and poorly performing schools in Chicago, as well as the locations of non-school tutor/mentor programs. I use this information in a marketing campaign intended to draw a better distribution of volunteers and donors to all neighborhoods where tutor/mentor programs are needed.

I've not found too many people using the GIS to draw resources into different neighborhoods of a city. If you know of examples, I'd like to learn about them.

At http://tutormentor.blogspot.com/2007/01/changing-demographics-of-chicago.html I write about this and show links to others who are also demonstrating uses of GIS. In the T/MC web site I have a section with links to other GIS web sites. These demonstrate many ways that GIS and other visual communications applications can be used and that we're trying to harness.

Are you doing any work with UCLA? They have a mapping project there, too.

Dan Bassill Tutor/Ment or Connection


Guest 14

Laura L. on January 12, 2008, at 12:39PM – #23

This is an interesting approach to maping. I have only one question though: Why did you use this method of maping, and where did you get your informaion from?



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